Direct answer: A KFF analysis published October 30, 2026 projects that the average monthly premium for a stand-alone Medicare Part D prescription drug plan (PDP) will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, an increase of 50%, if current enrollees keep the same plan. Medicare Open Enrollment for 2027 coverage runs October 15, 2026 through December 7, 2026. That $51 figure is a "stay put" average, not a bill every enrollee will receive: KFF itself expects the actual average to be lower once people switch plans during open enrollment, so comparing your own plan before December 7 matters more than ever this year.
Why are there two different 2027 premium averages?
Two widely quoted numbers describe different questions. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) projected a national average stand-alone Part D premium of $36 for 2027, up by less than $1 from $35. KFF projected $51, based on June 2026 enrollment and assuming enrollees keep their current plans. KFF notes that CMS did not explain its calculation method and that CMS may have assumed switching to lower-cost plans, which would produce a lower average. In other words, the CMS figure describes the market if people shop around; the KFF figure describes what happens if they do not. Neither number is your plan's price. Your premium depends on your plan, your region, and the drugs you take.
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 (projected, if you stay in the same plan) |
|---|---|---|
| Stand-alone Part D plan (PDP), average monthly premium, KFF | $34 | $51 (up 50%, a $17 increase) |
| Stand-alone Part D plan, national average monthly premium, CMS | $35 | $36 (up less than $1) |
| Drug coverage inside a Medicare Advantage plan (MA-PD), average monthly premium, KFF | Not given as a single comparable average in the KFF summary | About $9 (up less than $2) |
For clarity: the MA-PD drug premium is estimated at about $9 per month in 2027, more than five times lower than the $51 PDP average. That gap is one reason the same "Part D premium" headline can sound very different depending on whether drug coverage comes from a stand-alone plan or from a Medicare Advantage plan.
Who faces a higher premium if they make no change?
KFF estimates that, among 13.6 million stand-alone plan enrollees who do not receive Part D Low-Income Subsidies (LIS), 10.4 million (76%) will pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they keep their current plan. That group includes 4.1 million people enrolled in zero-premium plans in 2026 who will face a higher premium next year because no zero-premium stand-alone plans are available in 2027 for enrollees without LIS. Of the 10.4 million facing an increase, 2.4 million would see their monthly premium rise by more than $50 if they stay put, compared with only 38,000 enrollees who faced an increase larger than $50 per month in 2026.
At the same time, the average hides a wide spread. If enrollees without LIS keep their current plans, more than half (55%, or 7.5 million) will pay less than $20 per month, while nearly 30% (3.9 million) will pay $100 per month or more. Among the eight national stand-alone plans, average monthly premiums for 2027 are projected to range from around $6 to $204: Centene's Wellcare Value Script Rx averages $6.50 (up from $5.80 in 2026), while United's AARP Medicare Rx Preferred averages $204.50 (up from $126.00 in 2026). Averages also vary by region for the same plan, so a national average is only a starting point.
Why did the stay-put average rise so much?
A major reason is the end of the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026. That program provided additional premium subsidies to plan sponsors and capped the maximum allowable monthly premium increase at $50 for 2026. With the demonstration discontinued, that cap and those subsidies no longer hold 2027 premiums down in the same way. KFF also notes that the average beneficiary has 9 stand-alone plans and 28 Medicare Advantage drug plans to choose from, so shopping is possible, but only if you compare before the deadline.
What else should you check besides the premium?
- Your deductible. The average Part D deductible in 2027 is projected at $643 for stand-alone plan enrollees (up from $540 in 2026) and $489 for Medicare Advantage drug plan enrollees (up from $360). The standard Part D deductible rises from $615 to $700. Virtually all stand-alone plan enrollees (99.8%) and 85% of Medicare Advantage drug plan enrollees will be in plans that charge a deductible in 2027, if they do not switch.
- Your drug list and cost sharing. Virtually all stand-alone plan enrollees will face coinsurance rather than a fixed copayment for preferred brands (median 25%) and non-preferred drugs (median 35%) in 2027. Coinsurance is a percentage, so your cost moves with the drug price.
- Your Annual Notice of Change. Compare your 2027 premium, deductible, drug tiers, and pharmacy network with your 2026 coverage, not just the headline average.
- Help with costs. People with limited income and resources may qualify for Extra Help (the Part D Low-Income Subsidy), which changes the premium picture substantially. Check eligibility even if you did not qualify before.
How can you compare 2027 drug plans?
Use the Medicare Plan Finder at Medicare.gov: enter your medicines and pharmacies, then compare total yearly cost, not premium alone. You can also call 1-800-MEDICARE, available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, or contact your local State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) for free, individual help. People who want to keep their current coverage generally do not need to re-enroll, but this year, doing nothing is itself a choice with a projected average cost: $51 per month for stand-alone drug coverage, versus a lower average if you switch to a cheaper plan.
Frequently asked questions
Will my stand-alone drug plan premium really be $51 in 2027?
Not necessarily. $51 is KFF's projected enrollment-weighted average if current enrollees keep the same plan. Your premium could be well below $20, or $100 or more, depending on your plan and region. Check your plan's 2027 premium in your Annual Notice of Change or on Medicare.gov.
Why does CMS say the average is only $36?
CMS projected a national average of $36 based on September 2026 enrollment, without explaining its method. KFF suggests CMS may have assumed that enrollees switch to lower-cost plans. The two figures answer different questions, so they are not a contradiction to pick a side on: they are a reason to check your own plan.
Are zero-premium stand-alone drug plans gone in 2027?
For enrollees without Low-Income Subsidies, KFF finds no zero-premium stand-alone plans available in 2027. That is why 4.1 million people in zero-premium plans in 2026 face a higher premium next year if they stay put.
When does 2027 coverage start?
Medicare Open Enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, 2026, for coverage starting January 1, 2027. Changes made by December 7 apply to 2027 coverage.
Key takeaway
KFF projects that stand-alone Part D premiums will average $51 per month in 2027, up 50% from $34, if enrollees stay in the same plan, while CMS projects a national average of $36, a difference explained largely by whether switching is assumed. About 10.4 million stand-alone plan enrollees without low-income subsidies face a higher premium if they make no change, including 2.4 million facing an increase of more than $50 per month, and no zero-premium stand-alone plans are available for that group in 2027. The practical point is simple: before December 7, 2026, compare your own plan's premium, deductible, drug list, and total cost on Medicare.gov, because the average you end up paying depends on whether you shop.
Sources
- KFF, Medicare Part D Premiums and Cost Sharing in 2027, published October 30, 2026 — https://www.kff.org/medicare/medicare-part-d-premiums-and-cost-sharing-in-2027/
- KFF press release, The Average Monthly Premium for Medicare Part D Stand-Alone Plans Is Projected to Increase by 50% From $34 to $51 in 2027 Unless Enrollees Switch to Lower-Cost Plans, published October 30, 2026 — https://www.kff.org/medicare/the-average-monthly-premium-for-medicare-part-d-stand-alone-plans-is-projected-to-increase-by-50-from-34-to-51-in-2027-unless-enrollees-switch-to-lower-cost-plans/
- CMS press release, Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027, published September 28, 2026 — https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-medicare-prescription-drug-programs-expected-remain-stable-2027
This post was created with the help of AI and is for general information only. It is not medical, legal, or financial advice, and it does not replace guidance from a licensed professional, a Medicare counselor, or an official source such as Medicare.gov, CMS, or KFF. If a detail affects your coverage or your premium, please confirm it with Medicare or a qualified professional before acting.
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